6.2 Climate change scenarios

In addition to historical change indicating future trend of water resources，it is also important to investigate how climate change affects water resourcespatiotemporal pattern.IPCC has released emission scenarios used for drivingGCM named SRES.It provides supporting data for evaluating climate and environmental consequences of future CO2 emission responsible for temperaturerise.SRES contains a wide range of driving forces related to future development of demography，technology and economy.Two major scenarios A2 andB2 with opposite characteristics are selected.A2 describes a relatively immoderate and heterogeneous world with low convergence of fertility patterns butcontinuously increasing global population.Economic development in A2 is primarily regionally oriented but fragile and slow. ......     （共1118字）    [阅读本文]>>